‘Survivor 47’ host Jeff Probst reacts to crazy Shot in the Dark deal

Something quite remarkable happened on Wednesday’s episode of Survivor 47 when contestants offered a deal to Jeff Probst that clearly shocked the host. The scene was set at this week’s immunity challenge when Probst offered the hungry tribe a bag of rice if four players would agree to sit out the challenge, thereby forgoing a chance at individual safety.

The tribe countered with three people sitting out, only for the host to stand firm. They then asked about sacrificing two Shots in the Dark, and again the host declined. But the next offer blew all others out of the water, as Kyle Ostwald asked about a deal if every player agreed to give away their Shot in the Dark. Now the host was interested.

After Gabe Ortis convinced final holdout Sam Phalen to part with his cube, the offer was firm and Probst accepted it. But did he want to? After all, the production purpose of the Shot in the Dark is not just to offer each player one Hail Mary chance to stay alive in the game. It is also a tool to keep contestants from informing victims of their fate, thereby increasing blindsides. Knowing that, did Probst hesitate to accept the more than generous offer out of worry that this season’s run of blindsides could come to a crashing halt without SITDs in the game? The host was asked exactly that by Jay Wolff on the latest episode of the On Fire With Jeff Probst podcast.

“It is a really good question,” Probst says on the podcast. “The offer to sacrifice all their Shots in the Dark in exchange for rice played out in real time. So my decision was also happening in real time. And in moments like that, you’re quickly using your critical thinking to go through a mental checklist of any really obvious game breaking problems that this deal might cause.”

And that’s not all the host had to calculate: “You’re also weighing the value of the offer. Is this a real sacrifice for them? Is it worth the rice?”

But wait, there’s more! “You’re also still in host mode,” Probst explains. “So you’re having a conversation with the group while you’re watching the reactions of the players to see if there’s any story coming from this, like Sam having to be talked into it.”

There was also a bigger, less mathematical picture for Probst to weigh. “Hanging above all of these other considerations is the human in me thinking these are real people,” he says. “They’re busting their butts in this game. That’s good. The gameplay is so tight, nobody wants to give up their shot of immunity. That’s good. And they’ve come up with a pretty inventive idea. That’s also good. So you’ve got to really consider it.”

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When circling back to losing the dramatic advantage of the Shots in the Dark remaining in the game, Probst notes that, “Finally, yes, I’m also considering the impact of the obvious thing, which is you’re losing that dramatic element at Tribal, which does create a lot of uncertainty. So after considering all of this during that 10 seconds, I ultimately felt it was a very strong offer and quite likely to result down the line in at least one player at some point regretting their decision to give up their Hail Mary.”

While Probst ultimately decided the trade-off was worth it and made the deal, he also has a message: “Remember, future players, that every season is unique for the players. It’s also unique for me. So I go back to a familiar refrain on Survivor — history is merely an indicator of what has happened, but not a predictor of what might happen in the future.”

Translation: This is not a deal he is likely to make again.

For more from Probst on the latest Survivor 47 episode, check out the latest episode of On Fire With Jeff Probst.