A geopolitical risk premium hasn’t yet been priced into oil markets, said the ANZ Research team in a note.
Markets have largely brushed off such risks, such as tensions rising in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, and the U.S.’s partial evacuation of its embassy in Iraq, they said.
These events, however, significantly raise the risks of supply disruptions. ANZ is also watching the critical minerals industry, which is central to energy systems. The U.S.-China trade war continues to pose challenges to the U.S. energy sector, they added.
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