How playoff performances could impact Canada’s 2026 Olympic roster

It’s been a banner year for best-on-best on-ice battles between Canada and the United States.

Back in February, the 4 Nations Face-Off offered up a memorable chapter, the two countries going head-to-head in an overtime thriller to claim the trophy, making a classic of what seemed set to be a sideshow. Then the Stanley Cup Final offered something of a follow-up — a run-it-back reunion between Edmonton and Florida, pitting a couple of each nation’s best, Connor McDavid and Matthew Tkachuk, against each other. 

Now, attention shifts to the real international follow-up: the 2026 Winter Olympics, which will see the NHL elite return to the world stage.

Earlier this week, we got our first glimpse at some of the stars set to suit up for the tournament, with each of the participating squads releasing the first six names on their roster. For Team Canada, it was a familiar crew: Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Cale Makar, Brayden Point and Sam Reinhart.

That said, Canadian GM Doug Armstrong made clear he and the rest of the red-and-white brass aren’t simply looking to run it back with the same squad that claimed a top finish at 4 Nations.

“I would say that certainly the majority, probably 70 to 80 per cent of the players, could be consistent from that event,” Armstrong said Monday. “But I think some players are going to rise up. I think if you look at some of the players that were on the cusp of making that 4 Nations team — we had one in St. Louis, Robert Thomas. [He] obviously got a difficult start to his year with injuries and didn’t have a chance, with the team being named early, to put his best foot forward. He played fantastic the rest of that season. Nick Suzuki was another player who played great hockey. Tom Wilson played great hockey.

“There are a lot of guys that didn’t make that team who are going to want to have a great October, November, December. And using that extra month, I think, is going to be advantageous to us.”

With another post-season of clutch big-game performances to take into account, and some time to reflect on what worked and what didn’t at the 4 Nations Face-Off, let’s take an early look at how Team Canada’s lineup could shake out at the Milano Cortina Games.

Brad Marchand — Sidney Crosby — Nathan MacKinnon
Sam Reinhart — Connor McDavid — Mitch Marner 
Brandon Hagel — Sam Bennett — Brayden Point
Carter Verhaeghe — Mark Scheifele — Mark Stone

There won’t be too much mystery when it comes to Canada’s top six, half of which is already set, given the presence of Crosby, McDavid and MacKinnon.

Crosby and MacKinnon, close friends and longtime off-season training partners, are expected to line up together, as they did at 4 Nations. As for who gets the coveted spot on their wing, after his dominant performance for Florida in the Cup Final, there should be little doubt that Brad Marchand still has plenty to give when the lights are brightest. The vet is no stranger to teaming up with his fellow Nova Scotians — Marchand and Crosby combined for 18 points in six games as linemates while leading Canada to a World Cup of Hockey gold back in 2016.

McDavid had a rotating cast of linemates at the 4 Nations Face-Off. But he got significant time with Reinhart and Mitch Marner on his wings, and the thinking there seems clear. No. 97 needs no reminder of Reinhart’s reputation when it comes to high-stakes hockey, as the Panthers vet is coming fresh off a four-goal performance in Florida’s Cup-clinching win that should earn him another crack at a starring role for the national team. And for all the ink spilled on Marner’s lack of big-game presence, he and McDavid came up with the moment of the tournament last time they played together, with Marner setting up the Oilers captain for the overtime tourney-clinching winner. Safe to say there’s some chemistry there.

The real questions come in the bottom six. 

Sam Bennett was a fringe addition for Canada’s 4 Nations squad and still managed to finish as a standout. But a dominant post-season performance — which saw the 28-year-old lead the league in playoff goal-scoring and claim the Conn Smythe — should make him a cornerstone of the Canadian effort this time around. Shuffled throughout the lineup game-by-game, Brayden Point had a quiet run at the tournament and a fairly quiet post-season, too. Still, he remains one of Canada’s best and has enough dynamic skill to succeed anywhere in this lineup. His Lightning teammate Brandon Hagel wound up another unexpected standout during Canada’s run at 4 Nations, and after a string of career-best seasons in Tampa Bay, seems a good bet to crack the national team roster once again.

If there are tweaks to make to the squad that Canada iced at the February tournament, it’s on the fringes. Seth Jarvis and Travis Konecny earned spots last time out, but neither managed to break through and find many impactful moments — though, to be fair, they had limited opportunity to do so. Still, the young forwards didn’t offer enough to justify Canada leaving Mark Scheifele out, and the Winnipeg Jets pivot should crack the lineup this time around, especially after a career year and a point-per-game post-season. Mark Stone moved up and down the lineup at 4 Nations and should be a versatile piece for the squad again, though his slowing wheels might make him a more impactful presence in a smaller role. 

Who fills the final spot among the forward corps will likely depend on the early months of the 2025-26 campaign. A strong start could earn Jarvis or Konecny another shot. Selke nominee Anthony Cirelli, who suited up as a regular at 4 Nations, could draw back in. Maybe the red-and-white’s decision-makers beef up the squad with Tom Wilson, who’s fresh off a career offensive year. Or add some youth, should Connor Bedard find a new level. Armstrong mentioned Robert Thomas and Nick Suzuki as promising options, too.

But if we’re talking big-game performers, Carter Verhaeghe surely deserves a look. Though he’s rarely been granted a chance to wear the red maple leaf, the 29-year-old has established himself as one of the most clutch performers in the game when the stakes are highest. Since his playoff debut in 2020 — when he earned the first of his three Stanley Cup rings — no player in the league has scored more playoff game-winners than Verhaeghe’s 13, nor has anyone bested his five post-season overtime tallies. Since joining the Cats a half-decade ago, he’s amassed more playoff points than any Canadian forward not named Connor McDavid. 

He finished tied for third among all playoff scorers this time around, his 23 points in 23 games level with Olympic shoe-ins Reinhart and Tkachuk. Seems like a worthy piece to throw into the mix.

Devon Toews — Cale Makar
Josh Morrissey — Colton Parayko
Shea Theodore — Drew Doughty

Much less sorting out is needed when it comes to the back end, unless injuries throw a wrench into Canada’s plans.

Cale Makar and Devon Toews seem a lock to return as the red-and-white’s top pair, and there’s no reason to overthink the decision there — the duo remains world-class. Josh Morrissey and Colton Parayko should be another near-lock — the pair teamed up at 4 Nations until Morrissey was forced out of the lineup with injury, and both looked solid for Canada overall.

Shea Theodore is sure to get the call, too. The key question is who slots in as his blue-line partner. Last time out, it was veteran Drew Doughty, with the pair getting only a game together before Theodore was ousted by an injury himself. Doughty’s age may work against him when it comes time for Canada to name its full roster, but the 35-year-old impressed at 4 Nations, and his calm-under-fire approach wound up a key asset for the champs. If he continues that run of form into the beginning of 2025-26, maybe he gets a crack at returning for his third Olympic Games.

If not, fellow veteran Alex Pietrangelo could be a worthy alternate, given his experience alongside Theodore, though injuries barred him from suiting up last time he was needed by Team Canada. There’s a case to be made for the offensively gifted Evan Bouchard, who’s helped Edmonton reach back-to-back Cup Finals, but the young rearguard’s shaky defensive performance in the deciding game of this latest run likely works against him. On the other side of that Cup Final, Aaron Ekblad might’ve played his way into a shot. Also sure to get a look: Thomas Harley and Travis Sanheim, both of whom were thrust into action for Canada’s injury-riddled 4 Nations blue line and performed well. 

Jordan Binnington
Darcy Kuemper
Adin Hill

There was no position on the Canadian roster more scrutinized before, during and after the 4 Nations Face-Off than this one. Much was made of the decision to ride with Jordan Binnington over some other worthy countrymen, and to take Sam Montembeault as the third option behind the Blues’ netminder and Adin Hill.

Given how it all shook out in the end, with Binnington holding down the fort and leading Canada to a tournament win, the 31-year-old likely earned a chance to return for the national team. Still, Team Canada’s brass must simply go with the best, most in-form option available when the time comes. 

Coming off a Vezina-nominated campaign in Los Angeles, Darcy Kuemper should be in that mix — if it’s experience Canada is looking for, Kuemper has a Stanley Cup ring too, won more recently than Binnington’s. Hill seems a worthwhile option to return and fill out the goaltending crew, given his own championship experience, while Logan Thompson, Mackenzie Blackwood and Stuart Skinner — who all seemed on the cusp of cracking the roster last time around — are sure to be in the mix once again. 

All will depend on the early months of the 2025-26 campaign, on who can ride a dominant start and a run of elite form all the way to Milan.