Thursday briefing: What the shock Badenoch-Jenrick leadership battle says about the future of the Tories | Conservatives
Good morning. Well that was unexpected …
It took them a full three months, but yesterday, Conservative MPs finally whittled down the candidates to succeed Rishi Sunak to two: Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.
Despite the strong performance of James Cleverly at the party’s conference this month, MPs opted to reject his offer to make them more “normal”, and instead give grassroots members the choice of two more rightwing candidates.
Leader of the opposition comes with intense media attention but little tangible power – particularly when, as now, the government has a thumping majority. Yet Labour has not made the most confident start in government, and Keir Starmer’s personal approval ratings have plunged, potentially opening up space for a politically savvy Conservative leader to do considerable damage.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s senior political correspondent Peter Walker about the two remaining candidates and what they might mean for the Tories’ next chapter.
Five big stories
US news | A weakening but still tremendously powerful Hurricane Milton slammed into Florida’s west coast on Wednesday night as a category 3 storm, leaving more than 2 million homes without power while bringing “catastrophic” winds likely to cause significant property damage.
Middle East | At least 400,000 civilians in Gaza remain trapped by the latest Israeli offensive centred on Jabaliya refugee camp, according to UN agencies and human rights groups.
Economy | Keir Starmer’s promise to end austerity and rebuild public services will require tax increases of £25bn a year in the coming budget even if debt rules are changed to provide scope for extra investment spending, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has said.
United Nations | Saudi Arabia narrowly failed in its bid to win a seat on the UN human rights council, a blow to Riyadh’s efforts to boost the country’s rights reputation abroad, four years after it was rejected in a 2020 bid to join the 47-member body.
Politics | Rogue employers will be targeted by the Fair Work Agency, a beefed-up new enforcement authority, to protect sweeping changes to rights at work for millions of Britons set to be outlined in a “watershed” bill published on Friday.
In depth: ‘Cleverly was very much the continuity candidate’
Badenoch came top, with 42 of the 120 MP votes available, closely followed by Jenrick with 41. Cleverly (above), who had gained ground between the second and third rounds, received 37 votes, and was thus eliminated. It was a result that shocked Westminster.
Cleverly’s reassuring and well-received speech to party members at last month’s conference boosted his support between the second and third rounds, while Badenoch and Jenrick were both perceived to have made gaffes. However, Tory MPs appear to have decided that party members would prefer a more ideological candidate who can turn the page on the past 14 years more convincingly than the former home secretary.
“He was very much the continuity candidate. He’s still shadow home secretary, he was home secretary, he was foreign secretary, he was loyal to Boris and Rishi to the very end,” says Peter.
The Lib Dems, who took scores of seats off the Conservatives in July’s elections, celebrated the result, believing Cleverly was more likely to win back the moderate voters who switched to them.
Given the murky politics that always surround Tory leadership races, rumours immediately began circulating that the Cleverly camp may have tried to “lend” votes to Jenrick, thinking him a more beatable opponent than Badenoch — but had gone too far. Alternatively, Cleverly supporters may have cast their vote for their second choice candidate, assuming he was safe.
Peter suggests the outcome – which caused an audible gasp when it was announced – was likely the result of “cock-up, rather than conspiracy”.
What Jenrick offers
Jenrick, the former immigration minister, was the early frontrunner, with a slick campaign and a smart new image; but before yesterday it had appeared he was losing ground to his rivals.
At party conference, Jenrick was ridiculed for the apparently unevidenced claim that British special forces were “killing rather than capturing terrorists” because of “human rights laws”.
Throughout the campaign, Jenrick, who is backing Donald Trump in next month’s US election, has espoused what Peter calls “Trump-adjacent” views on migration.
“He’s gone quite nativist: he’s been talking about migration and asylum and linking it to crime,” Peter says. Jenrick has also claimed that “English identity” is under threat from migration, and suggested anyone shouting “Allahu Akbar” (God is great) during pro-Palestinian protests should be “immediately arrested”.
He is adamant that the UK should leave the European convention on human rights in order to make it easier to deport people, telling Conservative members: “It’s leave or die for our party.”
Jenrick is also remembered as the immigration minister who ordered that murals featuring cartoon characters at an asylum seeker reception centre for children be painted over. He went on to resign from the post, claiming the government’s Rwanda policy didn’t go far enough.
What Badenoch offers
Badenoch, the outspoken former business secretary, is less obsessed with migration but has also spent the three-month campaign repeatedly courting controversy.
At the party’s conference, she was forced to defend remarks suggesting that maternity pay was placing an excessive burden on businesses; and claimed that 5-10% of civil servants were so bad they should be in prison.
“It gave Conservative MPs almost a flavour of the drama that might come if she was leader,” says Peter, who adds: “She can’t see a culture war on the other side of the street without crossing over and giving it a few kicks.”
In a pamphlet published to coincide with Conservative conference, Badenoch’s “Renewal 2030” campaign warned of the rise of a nitpicking “bureaucratic class”, focused on complying with rules and regulations, rather than generating growth.
“If you tell people they cannot cope with microaggressions, they are unlikely to take risks or become entrepreneurs. If you build a victimhood and complaint culture, then a well-paid job policing this culture becomes the goal for more and more talented people,” the pamphlet argued.
Badenoch also recently celebrated the support of the rightwing Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, who has waged a “war on woke”. DeSantis claimed: “Kemi flies the flag of bold colours, just like we do in Florida”.
What happens next
The result of the contest will finally be announced on 2 November, leaving Rishi Sunak the job of responding to Rachel Reeves’s first budget – a tricky task for any leader of the opposition, who gets little warning of its contents.
Peter says it is very hard to predict a winner. The party had 172,000 paying members in 2022, when Liz Truss clinched the popular vote. Membership numbers are not made public between contests, but after a historic general election defeat, it appears likely the Tory electorate this time will be considerably smaller.
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And some of those on the party’s right wing who were most concerned about migration – the issue Jenrick put at the heart of his campaign – may have drifted away to the Reform party, which recently claimed to have almost 80,000 members.
Whichever candidate wins, however – Jenrick, with his focus on culture and migration, or Badenoch, the anti-woke warrior – the politics of the next few years appear unlikely to become less partisan or divisive.
What else we’ve been reading
At one point the European Union championed environmental protections, but backlash has made politicians nervous to go further. Ajit Niranjan takes a look at how this regression could have global repercussions. Nimo
Assisted dying is a hot topic in the UK, with a private member’s bill on its way to the House of Commons. Polly Toynbee makes a provocative contribution to the debate. Heather
A campaign to codify gender apartheid in Afghanistan as a crime against humanity has been under way for years. Annie Kelly explains what difference materially this change could make for women and girls living under Taliban rule. Nimo
I loved this gallery of winning shots from the wildlife photographer of the year competition – many of which highlight humans’ impact on nature. My son is doing a school project on the Amazon this half-term, so I’ll be showing him the beautiful picture of the (endangered) river dolphin. Heather
After spending six months researching the fallout of media coverage of missing people, Charlie Brinkhurst-Cuff argues that more care needs to be taken by journalists who wield significant power in these circumstances. Nimo
Sport
Cricket | Joe Root became England’s leading Test run-scorer in style, hitting a big hundred alongside Harry Brook, who hit his fourth ton in four Tests in Pakistan, as the tourists romped to 492-3 on day three at Multan.
Football | Pernille Harder scored a quickfire hat-trick for Bayern Munich in their 5-2 Women’s Champions League Group C win against Arsenal.
Tennis | Matches at Wimbledon will be held without line judges for the first time in the tournament’s history, with live electronic line calling replacing human officials from 2025. The sight of immaculately dressed line judges standing or crouching at the side and back of the grass courts has been a feature at the tournament for 147 years.
The front pages
“PM’s vow to end austerity ‘needs £25bn of tax rises’” is the Guardian’s splash headline based on analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The Times’ interpretation is “Threat of £25bn tax bomb after Reeves vow” while the Daily Telegraph goes with “£25bn tax rise pain on way, warns IFS”. So what’s on the cards? “Starmer paves way to raising employers’ NI contributions” says the Financial Times. “Winter fuel pensioners now face tax raid” – that’s the Express. The Daily Mail says there is “Business fury at Labour’s revolution for workers”, which the i gives a more neutral treatment with “Workers get right to flexible working under new Rayner law”. “Tory fight veers to the right” is the lead story in the Metro while the Daily Mirror has “Schoolboy murderer unmasked”, about the naming of teenager Holly Newton’s killer as her ex-boyfriend, Logan MacPhail.
Today in Focus
‘I am your retribution’: Trump’s radical plan to remake the presidency – podcast
Guardian US’s chief reporter, Ed Pilkington, explores Donald Trump’s plans for a second term as president if he wins next month’s election, and how they would give him unprecedented power.
Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Hospitals are “the ugliest places in the world”, says Swiss architect Jacques Herzog. Luckily, he has a solution for the often grim buildings, with innovative designs that – writes Oliver Wainwright – “make the experience as pleasant as possible for everyone”.
At Zurich’s new children’s hospital, the entrance resembles a spa, complete with marble sculptures, and bedrooms lead to wide corridors filled with natural light. While 17 parents shared a shower in the old hospital, now every room has its own en suite bathroom, and children have been kept in mind at every step, with cubbyholes filled with cushions and walls ready for doodling.
“It is an unbelievably neglected area,” adds Herzog. “But I am totally convinced that architecture can contribute to the healing process.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
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