OTTAWA — The “will he or won’t he” game between the Ottawa Senators and Claude Giroux finished with a resounding Jordan Belfort-type “I’m not (expletive) leaving” — can you even imagine him doing that? — on Sunday. Giroux signed a $2-million contract on Sunday with an additional $2.75 million in performance bonuses. It was a hometown-discount contract.
That opens the door to an interesting summer signing window for the Senators, a team that is ready to win now for the first time in almost a decade and is sitting on just under $8 million in cap space on July 1.
First, here’s a quick breakdown of Giroux’s bonus structure:
• $250,000 each for 20, 30 and 60 games played
• $250,000 if Sens make the playoffs and he plays 50 games
• $500,000 if Sens win Round 1
• $250,000 if Sens win Round 2
• $500,000 if Sens win Round 3
• $500,000 if Sens win Stanley Cup
As you can see, if Giroux remains healthy and plays over 60 games, he will earn an additional $750,000. If the Sens make the playoffs with Giroux playing over 50 games, another $250,000. If healthy, Giroux could stand to make between $750,000 and $1 million in bonuses. The rest of the contract is based on winning some playoff series (and the Cup!), which reaches $4.75 million as the highest possible total.
For the Senators, negotiating bonuses allows the team, if necessary, to have more cap space for this coming season with Giroux’s base salary of $2 million.
The prolonged negotiations with Giroux, resulting in a reduced base salary, provide Ottawa with ample opportunity to make a significant deal in free agency if the price is right.
Now that the biggest order of Senators’ free agent business is done, what’s next?
Well, with $8,194,286 in cap space for the Senators, according to PuckPedia.com, it is unlikely that anything groundbreaking will happen on July 1 unless general manager Steve Staios once again makes a big trade or a move out of nowhere. The Senators are seemingly where the Toronto Maple Leafs were for years: in run-it-back mode with little cap space available to add a big-name talent in free agency, without players shipped out the door in a corresponding trade.
Ahead of the draft and free agency, Ottawa had two clear holes to fill: acquiring a right-shot top-four defenceman and acquiring a top-six forward. The trade for right-shot defenceman Jordan Spence, combined with Giroux’s signing, fills those needs, to an extent. With Giroux back, Ottawa’s forward group is as deep as any in the NHL.
But is Giroux still a top-six player? It’s a good question with an imperfect and unknowable answer. He will be 38 by the end of next season, and you would expect some natural regression after potting 50 points last season. In his first three seasons in Ottawa, Giroux slipped from 79 to 64 to 50 points while missing only one regular-season game in the three seasons. That’s a steady and significant decline.
On the other hand, in terms of analytics, according to Hockey Viz, the Senators performed better offensively and defensively with Giroux on the ice compared to when he was off. Giroux still has great chemistry with Stutzle and Tkachuk, evidenced by their strong play together in the playoffs. If Giroux is a 40-to-50-point player next season, Ottawa should be happy with his contract. But it’s not clear if he will still be a top-six player, even if he takes a slight drop-off in production.
-
32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.
Latest episode
Giroux’s signing doesn’t hold Ottawa back from still trying to sign another big-game top-six winger with its cap space. However, don’t be too hopeful about that.
Staios said the Senators would look for “probably mostly depth” when it comes to their free agent plans. You’d figure that would be forward help, because on defence, Ottawa has now seven NHL-calibre defencemen in the mix after acquiring Spence. Carter Yakemchuk is waiting in the Belleville wings as an eighth defenceman in the depth chart. Staios traded for defenceman Spence during the draft, insulating Ottawa from the uncertainty around Nick Jensen’s injury status. Spence adds a much-needed puck-moving defensive tool to Ottawa’s right-side defence.
If the Senators hadn’t gone out and brought Spence into the fold, Ottawa would be shopping for a Spence-type in free agency. Ottawa has now drafted two right-shot defencemen — Yakemchuk and Logan Hensler — in back-to-back years. Consider the right side settled.
Trading down two spots to acquire a third-round pick used to acquire Spence was the perfect example of Staios optimizing a tough situation, which could carry over into free agency with limited cap space.
“I think, really, you can get a little eager on July 1,” said Staios about being wary of spending too much money in free agency.
The jump from good to great in the NHL is treacherous, especially when taking swings in free agency. You wonder if Staios might try to wait out the market and jump on a free agent who loses the game of musical chairs for a discount.
The Senators are in a precarious position, where they aren’t good enough to mortgage the future but still need improvements. With the lack of picks and prospects, you wonder if Staios sheds salary while acquiring assets either to use in a trade or to accumulate cap space. Without a large allotment of picks, don’t count on the Senators to offer sheet restricted free agents. But you never know.
They will need to fill their fourth line, which could eat up $2 million to 3 million in cap space. They also need to decide on a backup in net. That could mean signing Leevi Merilainen on a cheap contract after his great last season.
Ottawa has enough flexibility with the Giroux and Spence moves to pursue either one star or another really good middle-six forward in free agency, if it is willing to spend to the salary cap.
Salary cap space: $8,194,286
Roster size: 18/23
Salary committed to forwards: $48,505,714
Salary committed to defence: $29,617,500
Salary committed to goalies: $8,250,000
Salary committed to retention and buyout: $1,875,000
Boeser is a flawed player but has been linked to Ottawa. He has what Ottawa sorely lacks: great shooting. A former 40-goal scorer just two seasons ago, Boeser would walk in and immediately be the best goal-scorer on a team that finished 24th in shooting percentage last season. Boeser’s career shooting percentage is 14.1 per cent.
He’s likely to command something in the $8-million or $9-million range; if signed, he could become Ottawa’s highest-paid player if it’s above Tim Stutzle’s $8.35 million (AAV) per season. For all of Boeser’s shooting touch, he lacks speed, defensive acumen and play-driving abilities. If the Senators can pull off the signing, they’d have to shed salary, whether that is Drake Batherson’s almost $5 million for the next two seasons or David Perron’s $4 million.
Are they better with Boeser instead of Batherson or Perron? Probably, and they would add goals to a lineup bereft of shooters. If signed to a seven-year contract, Boeser might age poorly like a Dany Heatley or Bobby Ryan, whose pace all but vanished in the twilight of their careers. Boeser would be a risk, but he’d perfectly fit a hole the Senators have in their top six. Imagine a top line of Tkachuk-Stutzle-Boeser. Firepower.
Suter, despite being a natural centre, can play the wing and is a jack of all trades and an analytics darling. He’s a good skater who is excellent defensively and a great penalty killer. He is in line for an overpay as he scored 25 goals last year on an obscenely high shooting percentage.
If the Sens whiff on higher-profile acquisitions, Suter would be an excellent addition who would fill a need: speed and high-quality penalty killing, with some scoring touch. Once again, the Senators would likely need to shed salary to sign Suter, so it wouldn’t be a perfect fit. And you are buying high if you’re the Senators. But Suter would build upon an already deep Senators forward group.
Other potential fits: Mitch Marner (wouldn’t that be something!), Nikolaj Ehlers, Mikael Granlund, Andrei Kuzmenko, Jack Roslovic, Nick Perbix, Andrew Mangiapane, Tanner Jeannot, Jonathan Drouin, Brandon Tanev.
Source link
