By Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson
BEIJING (Reuters) – Major copper smelters across top consumer China have kicked off equipment maintenance in March, traditionally a peak demand period, in a bid to stem losses from a worsening feedstock shortage that is hammering margins, industry insiders said.
Shutting down plants in what is traditionally one of the busiest times of the year highlights how much pain the scarcity of copper concentrate is causing refiners, a problem compounded by smelting overcapacity that has sparked fierce competition for the raw material and sent treatment fees below zero.
Roughly 980,000 metric tons of smelting capacity, or 8% of China’s total last year, is set for maintenance in March, Hongyuan Futures said in a note. Three analysts and a smelter manager told Reuters this was an unusually high amount compared to previous years.
Staff at three large smelters confirmed to Reuters they began equipment maintenance in March. Another operator, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, which accounted for 13.5% of China’s refined copper output in 2023, started month-long maintenance on some smelting equipment in early March, according to two sources.
Production cuts can be sensitive in China, where many smelters are important contributors to regional economies, but as in many industries, from steel to oil refining, the sector is plagued by overcapacity as operators chase market share.
The overcapacity in China, the world’s largest supplier of the refined metal used in wiring, machinery and new energy technologies, is contributing to a global imbalance in the copper smelting industry.
By shutting equipment for maintenance, smelters hope to cut consumption of copper concentrate, ease the concentrate shortfall and stop processing fees from sliding even further, analysts said.
Eight analysts and smelters who spoke to did so on condition of anonymity given they are not authorised to speak to media.
Tongling did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
The industry’s difficulties put a spotlight on the March 31 quarterly meeting of the China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT), where measures including production cuts are set to be discussed, sources with knowledge of the matter said.
“There is a significant risk of large-scale output cuts among Chinese smelters this year,” said Patricia Barreto, senior analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
If Chinese smelters jointly agree a production cut, refined copper output this year will likely fall, which could lead China to import more, analysts said.
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