As the Edmonton Oilers clung to a 3-2 lead against the Dallas Stars in Game 5 of the Western Final, McDavid turned on the afterburners, reaching a top speed of 22.1 m.p.h. on his breakaway goal.
“That was a golden example of a big player making a big play in a big moment,” Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse told reporters afterward.
One night earlier, Barkov powered up below the goal line, practically toying with Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Dmitry Orlov before slipping a backhand pass to Carter Verhaeghe in tight space for the series-winning tally.
“Big players make big plays at the biggest moments when you need them, and he’s certainly the leader of this team,” Panthers forward Sam Reinhart told reporters as Florida celebrated its third consecutive trip to the Stanley Cup Final.
The performances of Edmonton’s and Florida’s captains will have a major influence on the championship rematch, which gets underway Wednesday at Rogers Place. On one end, there is McDavid — an awe-inspiring force of nature with the puck on his stick. On the other is Barkov — a force in his own right on the defensive side of the puck.
McDavid, who last year won the Conn Smythe Trophy despite losing in the Final, is the favorite to take it home again this year. He is the NHL’s leading scorer this post-season with 26 points, one more than teammate Leon Draisaitl.
No one, however, comes close to McDavid in numerous other offensive categories. His 65 end-to-end rushes, for example, are 19 more than the next-closest player (Vegas’ Jack Eichel). McDavid’s 20:13 of offensive-zone possession time leads Draisaitl by more than two minutes. (McDavid can become the fourth repeat winner of the Conn Smythe Trophy, joining Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and Mario Lemieux, as well as Philadelphia’s Bernie Parent.)
Although McDavid had only three goals through 13 playoff games, a breakout was inevitable. Based on the quality of his shot attempts, he should have had closer to seven goals. So it came as no surprise when McDavid scored three goals in the final three games of the Dallas series, punctuated by his dazzling breakaway.
“I was a little surprised we went through the playoffs and (for) as many shots and quality opportunities (that) he had, he hadn’t (scored) more goals,” Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch told reporters. “It was just a matter of time.”
The Panthers will have to prepare for something they did not see in the Stanley Cup Final last year — McDavid on the penalty kill. Knoblauch has started deploying McDavid in shorthanded situations, playing his captain for 1:07 per game when the Oilers are down a man. McDavid received 2:01 of total shorthanded ice time in 25 games last post-season, including 30 seconds across seven Stanley Cup Final games. He has generated three shorthanded scoring chances, tied for fourth most in the playoffs.
McDavid has been on the ice for 18 of the Oilers’ 42 goals at 5-on-5, but scoring is about to become tougher with Barkov patrolling the ice. The three-time Selke Trophy winner did well against the best the Panthers’ previous opponents had to offer.
Barkov went head-to-head with Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point, Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Carolina’s Sebastian Aho for a total of 105:24 at 5-on-5 over the first three rounds of the playoffs. Florida allowed 11 goals, scored nine and generated 48.5 per cent of the expected goals during those minutes. The Panthers were out-chanced 46-43. Those are impressive numbers considering the level of talent on those top lines. Wingers Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov, Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis combined to score just four 5-on-5 goals when matched up against Barkov’s line.
Barkov helped keep the Oilers in check in last year’s Cup Final when he shared the ice with McDavid. Both teams scored one goal at 5-on-5 in more than 40 minutes of ice time.
No skater in these playoffs has won more puck battles than Barkov (79), and his 31 stick checks are tied with Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin for the league lead. Barkov’s 57.9 faceoff win percentage ranks third out of the 45 skaters who have taken at least 15 per cent of their team’s total draws. (Last year, Barkov won 18 of 25 faceoffs — 72 per cent — against McDavid in all situations.)
“That’s the stuff that fires us up the most — the little battles, the little stick lifts, the 1-on-1 wins, the little plays, the skills that maybe the average fan doesn’t notice, but we definitely notice,” Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk told reporters. “He’s the full package.”
Sportlogiq’s model predicts that the Oilers have a 52 per cent chance of capturing the franchise’s first Stanley Cup championship in 35 years. It also expects the Final to go seven games.
Panthers-Oilers II truly feels like a coin-flip series. McDavid and Barkov have the power to decide which way that coin lands.
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