SATURDAY PM: It’s a win for original movies as Warner Bros‘ Sinners has taken the lead at the Easter weekend box office with an estimated $45M over the studio’s A Minecraft Movie which is landing around $41M per sources tonight.
This comes after a better-than-expected Saturday of $16.2M for the Ryan Coogler directed, Michael B. Jordan starring vampire pic, down only -16% from Friday’s $19.2M. Rivals were forecasting more of a horror drop on Saturday night between -24% to -34%. A Minecraft Movie‘s Saturday is estimated at $15.6M, -3%.
While Sinners‘ Friday was just under Nope‘s $19.5M, its Saturday is ahead of the Jordan Peele title’s which did $13.9M for a 3-day of $44.3M. The 7:45PM Imax 70MM show at the AMC Universal Citywalk was sold out tonight, and it’s nearly sold out tomorrow night.
We also forgot to mention that Sinners‘ is the only horror movie in over 35 years to get an A CinemaScore besting that of Get Out (A-) and A Quiet Place Part II (A-).
Angel Studios’ King of Kings did around $6.35M today landing it between $17M-$18M in its second weekend.
We’ll have more for you in the AM.
SATURDAY AM: Warner Bros didn’t have a Good Friday, they had a Great Friday with Ryan Coogler’s Michael B. Jordan-starring Sinners winning the day with $19.2M and A Minecraft Movie‘s third Friday banking $16M. Penciled out, the Legendary co-production A Minecraft Movie will win the weekend at $45M while Sinners will leg out like a horror movie with $40M, the 11th best opening ever over an Easter frame. Massive walk-up here with 61% of the audience yesterday buying their ticket same-day per Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak. The entire weekend for all film is expected to hit $134M, which is 104% ahead of the same frame a year ago (a non-Easter one), and only -2% behind the Easter 2024 weekend.
Michael B Jordan times two in Ryan Coogler’s ‘Sinners’
Warner Bros.
For what we had been hearing about Sinners in the $30M range before a few days ago, this is a solid start for an original movie in period horror, which is a tricky genre at the box office (Focus Features pulled it off with Nosferatu over Christmas with a $21.6M 3-day, $40.8M 5-day). A $40M start for an original movie in a post-strike-streaming-Covid era is to be commended. It cannot be denied that with Coogler, Warner Bros Motion Picture co-chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy made an excellent movie. Look at these exits: Solid ‘A’ CinemaScore, 5 stars PostTrak, 92% positive and a massive 84% definite recommend. Men and women over 25 respectively gave the 2-hour and 17-minute running film 93% positive. High scores among diverse groups with Black moviegoers turning out at a huge 49% giving the pic 95%, Caucasians at 27% grading it 91%, Hispanic and Latino at 14% (90%) and Asian at 6% an 86% grade. The under 18 crowd who made it into Sinners gave the movie an A+.
We’ll get into the economics on Sinners in a bit.
After seeing the movie a week ago, I questioned whether a prestige film such as Sinners with its awards patina (great cinematography, production design and acting all around) with its horror bent was better suited for the fall coupled with a TIFF world premiere, a populist festival for moviegoers. We don’t often think of horror pairing with bunnies, peeps, lilies and chocolate. However, a tracking source pushed back, reminding me about the power of Easter weekend, that this was clearly the better date in its access to audiences to launch Sinners versus anytime in September or October. In addition, it was wise that Warners went with A Minecraft Movie in the first weekend of April versus Easter weekend. How’s that? Had A Minecraft movie launched this weekend, it would run into Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* two weeks from now. In the case of Sinners, the movie is counter-programming to the MCU title in its R-rated sensibility.
Imax, PLF and select 70MM are pulling in 47% of the weekend gross for Sinners with strong plays in the East, South and West. Currently, AMC Lincoln Square in NYC is the top grossing multiplex with $114K.
Big reasons for why moviegoers bought tickets: 47% said it was Jordan, while a big 40% cited Coogler; 45% said they heard it was good from friends and family. Another 45% told PostTrak they were eager to see a sequel to the movie. Eighty-one percent plan on telling their friends to see Sinners in a theater, no matter what; not at home.
At $90M-plus before P&A, it can be argued that’s a lot for a period horror movie. Some studios wouldn’t make this movie at this level. There was a rival offer to make Sinners at $90M. Know this is what it takes to be in business with auteurs who have delivered recent blockbusters on their resume. And with the departure of Christopher Nolan to Universal and Clint Eastwood approaching retirement, the studio of Stanley Kubrick, George Lucas (they released THX 1138) and Elia Kazan was in need of restocking. At $90M+ production for an auteur filmmaker who has a track record at the box office isn’t unheard of. Nolan’s Dunkirk cost $100M, and Interstellar was $165M. I’m told that Sinners’ breakeven lies around $170M global box office, and that’s because of the lucrative downstream from PVOD, Max, followed by subsequent windows on Prime and Netflix. Coogler did receive a rare first dollar gross (which means he begins to make a small percentage back immediately out of the film rental). Directors like Nolan and Tarantino receive first dollar gross (typically the profit payout for filmmakers and talent lies around breakeven). Others studios were offering first dollar gross for the project. I understand Coogler pushed his definition back to pay for any budget overages. The movie was shot with Louisiana tax credits.
Here’s how the rest of the weekend is looking:
1.) A Minecraft Movie (WB) 4032 theaters Fri $16M, 3-day $45M, Total $348.3M/Wk 3
2.) Sinners (WB) 3308 theaters, Fri $19.2M, 3-day $40M/Wk 1
3.) King of Kings (Angel) 3535 theaters, Fri $6.6M (-6%) 3-day $17.5M (-9%), Total $45.5M/Wk 2
4.) The Amateur (20th) 3400 theaters, Fri $2.3M (-62%), 3-day $7.5M (-49%), Total $27.6M/Wk 2
5.) Warfare (A24) 2,670 theaters, Fri $1.6M (-55%) 3-day $4.65M (-44%), Total $16.9M/Wk 2
6.) Drop (Uni) 3,089 (+4) theaters, Fri $1.19M (-64%), 3-day $3.45M (-53%), Total $13.5M/Wk 2
7.) Colorful Stage: The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing (GKIDS) 800 theaters, Fri/previews $1.42M, 3-day $2.8M/Wk 1
8.) Pride & Prejudice (re) (Foc) 1,393 theaters, Fri $930K, 3-day $2.6M/Wk 1
9.) Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 (Fath) 653 theaters, Fri $525K (-74%), 3-day $1.7M (-72%) Total $11.9M/Wk 2
10.) Snow White (Dis) 1650 (-890 theaters, Fri $451K (-39%) 3-day $1.35M (-53%), Total $84.7M/Wk 5
Notables:
Sneaks (Briarcliff) 1,500 theaters, Fri $240K, 3-day $675K/Wk 1
UPDATE, FRIDAY MIDDAY: Warner Bros’ Easter double feature weekend is currently shaping up with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners winning Good Friday over A Minecraft Movie, $18 million to $16.5 million, but the Mojang movie looks to overtake the R-rated Michael B. Jordan movie, $44M–$40M, for its third No. 1 weekend win. Both projections could go higher as the weekend continues, per sources. Some see Minecraft potentially hitting $50M; Minecraft is playing at 4,032 theaters, while Sinners is at 3,308 sites.
It’s the second time that Warner Bros has led the Easter weekend box office in the No. 1 and No. 2 spots following The Curse of La Llorona ($26.3M) and Shazam (third weekend of $16.4M) going 1-2 in 2019. Last night’s turnout by Black moviegoers at 46% indicates good walk-up business for Sinners, especially after the excellent word of mouth, and we’re hearing a high Imax share as well. Sinners is the first release shot with Imax film cameras since Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, and the last until next year’s The Odyssey.
Coogler leaned heavily into Imax in the promotion of the film with a viral video breaking down aspect ratios; Imax premieres in NYC, Mexico City and London; and inviting tastemaker friends Lebron James, Adele, Jay-Z, The Weeknd and Snoop Dogg to screen the film at Imax’s Playa Vista headquarters. Exclusively in Imax auditoriums, sequences in the film visually expand to fill the screen, allowing moviegoers to experience more picture with detail and clarity.
RELATED: Ryan Coogler Teases ‘Sinners’ Themes And Supernatural Elements Beyond Vampires In His “Personal Love Letter” To Cinema
Social media reach on Sinners was pretty big at 222.5 million per RelishMix across X, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok and Facebook. That’s higher than the social media universe before the release of comps Us (123M), Nope (179.8M) and Candyman (144.3M, $22M opening). Jordan and co-star Hailee Steinfeld are socially activated with 24M followers apiece. Among the positive reaction online, RelishMix noticed that fans loved how the trailer didn’t give everything away, and they love how Coogler and Jordan are a combo much like Tim Burton and Johnny Depp.
RELATED: Everything We Know About Ryan Coogler’s ‘Sinners’: From The Themes To How It Was Shot
Elsewhere this weekend, third will go to Angel Studios’ second weekend of The King of Kings at 3,535 theaters, with $6M today and $17M in its second weekend. That will take its running cume before Easter Monday to an estimated $45M.
In fourth is 20th Century Studios’ The Amateur with $8M in its second weekend, -46%, after a near $3M Friday at 3,400 sites. Its 10-day total would stand at $28M.
Fifth is A24’s Warfare at 2,670 locations seeing $1.4M today, $4M (-50%) for its second weekend and a running total by Sunday of $16M. The movie will easily eclipse the domestic run of the 2008 Iraq War bomb-squad unit movie The Hurt Locker at $17M stateside, which you’ll remember won the 2009 Oscar for Best Picture.
PREVIOUSLY, FRIDAY AM: Warner Bros’ $90 million+ period vampire movie Sinners chalked up $4.7 million in Thursday night previews that began yesterday at 3 p.m. Out of the gate with preview-night audiences, Sinners gets 5 stars on PostTrak with 80% definite recommend, an excellent exit that could bode well for over-indexing, knock on wood. Rotten Tomatoes is also high on the Ryan Coogler-Michael B. Jordan reteam, with reviews at 97% certified fresh and exits at that level as well.
The diversity demos last night were 46% Black, 30% Caucasian, 15% Latino and Hispanic and 5% Asian.
Sinners in its preview take is under that of genre comps like 2022’s Nope ($6.4M Thursday night, $44.3M opening) and 2019’s Us ($7.4M, $71.1M).
The miracles of Good Friday at the box office, with 72% of K-12 schools and a close to a third of colleges on break, were already in effect last night, with Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie shooting up in its daily take by 21% over Wednesday with $6.5M, sending the Jared Hess movie past the three-century mark at the domestic box office with $303.3M. A Minecraft Movie pulled off the feat in 14 days, three days slower than Illumination/Nintendo/Universal’s Super Mario Bros which took 11 days to cross $300M. That movie ended its U.S.-Canada run at $574.9M. A Minecraft Movie ends its second week with $102.9M.
One of the two movies will wind up as No. 1 during the Easter holiday frame with respective weekend takes of $40M+. Who can ding a studio for owning the top two slots over a holiday weekend? Good on Warner Bros.
Sinners is booked at 3,308 theaters including premium auditoriums of Imax 70MM, Imax digital, 70MM, Dolby, PLFs and motion seats.
Also opening this weekend is Bleecker Street’s remake of the Ang Lee movie The Wedding Banquet starring Bowen Yang and Lily Gladstone at 1,133 theaters. The movie gets 3 stars from PostTrak audiences and a 50% definite recommend.
The rest of the week is as follows:
2.) The King of Kings (Angel) 3200 theaters, Thu $2.4M (+15% over Wednesday), Total $28M/Wk 1
3.) The Amateur (20th/Dis) 3,400 theaters, Thu $1M (-6%), Total $20.1M/Wk 1
4.) Warfare (A24) 2,670 theaters, Thu $891K (-6%) Total $12M/Wk 1
5.) Drop (Uni) 3,085 theaters, Thu $617K (+2%) Total $10.1M/Wk 1
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