Senator Chuck Schumer of New York is the Senate majority leader. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who represents parts of the Bronx and Queens, is perhaps the most prominent progressive leader in America. And Representative Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn is viewed as one of the top contenders to succeed Speaker Nancy Pelosi as the next Democratic leader of the House.
The chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, is also from New York, and Mr. Maloney is expected to take a particular interest in how the state redraws its lines as he attempts to hold a historically narrow House majority. Democrats hold just a six-seat edge over Republicans.
As for where New York will reduce its representation, “the assumption is the loss will be upstate somewhere,” said Jack McEnany, a former state assemblyman who oversaw the most recent redistricting efforts.
There are several places upstate where Democrats could seek to eliminate a Republican-held seat.
Representative Tom Reed, a Republican who represents the Southern Tier, including Jamestown and Corning, recently announced that he would not seek re-election in 2022 after he was accused of groping a former lobbyist. His district could be combined with that of neighboring Representative Chris Jacobs, who represents the region outside Buffalo and who only took office last year.
Democrats could also combine the seats held by Representative Elise Stefanik, who represents much of the Adirondacks and is a top Republican fund-raiser now considering a run for governor, and Representative Claudia Tenney, who was narrowly re-elected to Congress last year after losing her seat in 2018. Ms. Tenney’s Central New York district reaches from the Pennsylvania border to Lake Ontario.
A top Democratic target is Representative John Katko, a Republican who represents Syracuse and who managed to hold onto his seat even though Democrats have carried the district in recent presidential elections. Democratic mapmakers would almost surely tip the district to be more favorable to the party.
Another first-term Republican, Representative Nicole Malliotakis, represents Staten Island and a slice of the more conservative parts of South Brooklyn. But Democrats could add more overwhelmingly Democratic parts of Brooklyn to her seat, making it more competitive.