Here’s why Mumbai Indians might not be able to face RCB in IPL 2025 Final

After 72 high-octane matches, we are finally into the penultimate game of the ongoing Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 season. While the Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) have already sealed their spot in the IPL 2025 final and even had a hardcore training session recently, they await their opponents. The Mumbai Indians (MI) and the Punjab Kings (PBKS) will battle it out for a place to deny RCB lifting their maiden crown.

While PBKS also seek to have an elusive IPL title, MI are heavyweights. The momentum is with MI as well, with them entering Qualifier 2 on the back of a win over the Gujarat Titans (GT) in the Eliminator a couple of days back. Having said that, MI face their toughest task now. They face PBKS, who have already beaten them in the league phase. And it wasn’t just an ordinary game. It was high-stakes, as the loss denied MI a top-two entry! While the past is in the past now, the future might not hold something special for MI either.

Why PBKS could beat MI in Qualifier 2

There are various factors that make the Mumbai Indians a beatable team right now. Yes, they may have recorded a thumping win over GT, but even that wasn’t smooth sailing. PBKS can exploit loopholes despite even enduring a gutting defeat in Qualifier 1 themselves. Yes, it was an off day for PBKS but they aren’t going to get bundled out for 101, especially with a gun batting lineup that they have.

MI heavily dependent on Bumrah

It is hard not to be dependent on Jasprit Bumrah if he’s in your side. Unsurprisingly, he’s having a dream IPL 2025, having taken 18 wickets at an economy rate of 6.37, the best by anyone this season. His bowling average (15.33) is also elite. However, the likes of Deepak Chahar and Trent Boult have not been able to create the same amount of pressure in some games.

Chahar, who’s in line to return for Qualifier 2, has leaked runs easily. In fact, he is enduring his worst season (in terms of economy) — 11 wickets in 14 games, an economy of 9.17. He starts well but often leaks runs in his last couple of overs — something the in-form and hard-hitting PBKS batters could exploit.

Even Boult has leaked at almost 9 runs per over, with him leaking 56 in the last match itself. Hardik Pandya himself has been a major letdown recently. In the last 10 matches with the ball, the MI skipper has managed just three wickets at an economy of 10.68 and at a horrible average of 67.66. Whenever MI needs a wicket, they cannot look anywhere other than Bumrah. That is the reality. It is a different matter when the world’s best bowler continues to dominate even when the opposition tries to just play him out.

History says bad news is incoming for MI

Mumbai Indians (MI) have all the tools to play on a great batting track, a black soil slow track or any other well-balanced surface. However, the Narendra Modi Stadium has been their nemesis. They just fail to deliver at the world’s largest cricket stadium, having lost all of their last five encounters.

MI’s last win at the venue came way back in 2014 when they beat the Rajasthan Royals (RR) by 25 runs. That remains MI’s only win in Ahmedabad. While Pandya would love to mend the odds in his favour, the franchise has truly failed to gauge the surface here. Also, Rohit Sharma, who hit a blazing 81 in the previous game, has poor numbers when it comes to IPL Qualifiers. The sample size is also nine games, which is a lot. In 9 outings, he has managed just 81 – the same score he hammered in the Eliminator alone on Friday.

Rohit Sharma’s stats in IPL Qualifiers