Friday Four: How will teams value Sam Bennett in free agency?

The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:

• Sam Bennett’s contract will be tricky for teams to navigate.

• The Oilers will miss Zach Hyman even more versus the Panthers.

Fans looking for the full Sam Bennett experience will get different results depending on which game he’s playing in. Catch him on a Thursday in November against Chicago, and he’s hardly noticeable. He blends in and is downright ordinary. See him in February at the 4 Nations Face-Off for Canada, and he stands out. Competing all over the ice, putting everything on net and scoring a massive goal in the championship game. By May and June, he’s a full-blown runaway freight train, scoring with regularity, hitting everything in sight and taking over games.

Bennett slowly builds his game, culminating in a crescendo come the post-season. He leads the playoffs in goals with 12, sits second in hits with 87 and ranks third with more than 100 shot attempts. His brilliance was on full display in Game 1 against the Edmonton Oilers as he scored a pair of goals. In a contest that boasted Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Bennett was the best player on the ice for the first two periods. If Florida ends up winning this series, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Bennett walk away with the Conn Smythe Trophy. He’s been that good.

The Panthers centre is also the master of playing on the edge without going over the line. Or crossing it subtly and craftily enough that he avoids discipline. Look up the definition of a player fans hate when he’s on the opposition but love when he’s playing for their team, and Bennett’s photo will be next to it.

When the Panthers conclude their third straight Stanley Cup Final appearance, Bennett will hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent if he and Florida can’t agree on an extension. Possibly as a back-to-back Cup champion and an undeniably incredible playoff performer. It’s perfect timing for Bennett, as several likely suitors will still have the bitter taste of playoff defeat in their mouths and may be willing to do anything to avoid a similar fate next season. The challenge for those teams is finding a fair number for a player whose best moments come after the 82-game regular season ends.

June is the time for rumours about potential contracts and interested parties, and the range for a potential Bennett deal has been large. Would seven years at $7 million a season get it done? Will any team go as high as $10 million a year? It will depend on how desperate teams are, and there is no shortage of organizations starving for playoff success.

Of course, anything is possible, but $10 million seems irrationally high for Bennett, even with a rising cap. Bennett will turn 29 later this month and a long-term deal with a number like that attached to it could be a recipe for disaster.

It should be noted that, in order for Bennett to help his team in the playoffs, they have to get there first. As good as Bennett has been in the post-season, he doesn’t have the regular-season numbers to justify an investment that large. Point production leads to bigger pay days, and Bennett has only crossed the 50-point mark once. He’s also well below 50 per cent in the faceoff dot for his career, and his style of play lends itself to injuries, which have already cost him substantial time in three of the past four campaigns. It would be reasonable to be concerned that Bennett’s body will break down before he reaches the end of a long-term contract.

Teams will also have to weigh the burden Bennett will carry if he’s signed for $9 million or more a season. Some fan bases will become unglued if Bennett is making an exorbitant amount of money and on pace for just 46 points in December, as his team is fighting for a playoff spot. Keep in mind, Bennett is not carrying this Panthers team on his back. He’s one piece of a well-oiled machine, and Florida is certainly better than the sum of its parts. Bennett’s skill set is the perfect fit for a Panthers team that plays a specific way and has the depth to make sure no one is leaned on too heavily. But drop Bennett into another environment and there’s the possibility it may not run as smoothly.

With all that said, Bennett can be a difference maker on any strong team in the playoffs, so the challenge becomes finding the right number. So, how can a team pry Bennett away from the Panthers? Florida is a no-tax state, and while that isn’t the main reason for their success, it certainly doesn’t hurt. Sam Reinhart made it to the eve of free agency last year before inking a very team-friendly eight-year deal worth $8.6 million per season. For that reason, if teams are only going to offer Bennett something in the 7×7 range, he may be better off staying in Florida, a place he knows he can thrive and continue to compete for a championship on an annual basis.

What is working in Bennett’s favour is that the centre market is very thin this summer and got even thinner this week with Brock Nelson signing an extension with the Colorado Avalanche. Bennett is clearly at the top of the class, as players like John Tavares, Mikael Granlund and Matt Duchene, while still talented, are all approaching their mid-30s. The stars are aligning for a bidding war over Bennett if he gets to July 1, and that’s when a team runs the risk of an overpay. But for teams looking to get over the hump, nothing ventured, nothing gained. At some point, teams have to move on from the status quo and try to escape mediocrity by shaking up the roster, and Bennett is a player who can rattle the foundations.

The risk/reward with any Bennett deal is going to be at an all-time high. Whichever team signs him is doing so with one goal in mind: a championship. It’s easier to overlook Bennett’s pedestrian regular-season numbers if he’s the catalyst in a spring that brings his team the Cup, but thinking one player can change the fortunes of a franchise in the post-season is a risky proposition.

Bennett’s contract will be a grand slam or very regrettable. There’s no in-between.

Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers

There was no more surefire move at the trade deadline than the Panthers acquiring Brad Marchand.

All it cost the Panthers was a conditional second-round pick in 2027 to acquire a player who was built for the playoffs. That pick is going to become a first-rounder thanks to the deep playoff runs the Panthers are on, but it’s a price GM Bill Zito will gladly pay for what Marchand has given his team. Marchand has lived up to his reputation in the post-season, scoring 15 points in 18 games and antagonizing the opposition at every turn. The four penalties he’s drawn in the playoffs will attest to that. He’s a perfect fit for what the Panthers do and has slid seamlessly onto Florida’s third line, arguably making them even deeper than when they won the Cup last season.

Marchand may be 37 and slowing down in the regular season, but in the playoffs, he is as effective as ever. The Panthers winger ranks sixth this post-season in even-strength points, and he has never had an issue generating offence in the spring. Marchand boasts 153 points in 175 playoff games and, since the 2016-17 season, he’s averaged 1.04 points per game in the post-season over 109 contests.

Florida always had an impactful third line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen, but the addition of Marchand gives the Panthers even more flexibility when deploying them. If Florida wants to get the Aleksander Barkov line away from tough matchups, it has no problem playing Lundell, Luostarinen and Marchand against the opposition’s top lines. They’re more than capable of holding their own, which could create a real problem for the Oilers to deal with as their bottom six isn’t well equipped to handle Marchand and company.

Marchand may not be a point-per-game player in the regular season again, and he could have an uphill battle making the Canadian Olympic team next season, but in a seven-game series there’s only a short list of players that can be as impactful as Marchand. That’s going to make him a hot commodity when he hits the free agent market this summer. If nothing else, Marchand has proven he still has a lot left in the tank when the games matter most.

Zach Hyman, Edmonton Oilers

The loss of Zach Hyman was always going to hurt the Oilers, but it’s going to be even harder to overcome against the Panthers.

What stands out the most with the loss of Hyman is obviously on the scoresheet. The 32-year-old scored 16 times in the post-season last year after a 54-goal regular season, and he’s now found the back of the net 35 times in his playoff career with the Oilers. That’s a massive improvement from his time with the Maple Leafs, where he managed just five goals in 32 post-season games and never scored more than once in any one series.

That’s in part because Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl elevate their game in the playoffs and Hyman has been the perfect complement to the high-end skill in Edmonton’s top six. He thinks the game at a high level and is a great finisher around the net. Not to mention, he’s excellent at digging the puck out of difficult areas and getting it on the stick of players who can create offence.

What’s been a pleasant surprise for the Oilers is the way Hyman has upped his physicality in these playoffs. Prior to his injury, Hyman had 111 hits in the first three rounds, while his career high for an entire season is only 117. It will be difficult for the Oilers to replace that element of Hyman’s game against a Panthers team that likes to throw their weight around.

Florida tries to wear their opponent down over a seven-game series by throwing hits every chance they get, and while Edmonton isn’t likely to match the Panthers hit for hit, Hyman would have at least been able to make an impact in that area of the game.

The Oilers have done an excellent job of overcoming losses in the playoffs. The defence corps pulled together with Mattias Ekholm sidelined, while Calvin Pickard did a great job filling in when Stuart Skinner was struggling. Now they’ll need to rely on their forward depth, which has been a bright spot, to step up even more without Hyman.

Jake Walman, Edmonton Oilers

When Jake Walman was dealt to the San Jose Sharks last summer, he probably never envisioned he’d be playing in the Stanley Cup Final just a year later.

The Sharks were the worst team in the league at that time, and the Detroit Red Wings attached a second-round pick in the deal to get San Jose to take Walman. What a difference a year makes, though, as Walman had a great season for the Sharks, notching 32 points in 50 games before Edmonton acquired him at the deadline.

Walman has been a key contributor for the Oilers during their second straight run to the Cup Final, and he set up Draisaitl for the opening goal in Game 1 against the Panthers. That helper was Walman’s fifth in his past five games, and he’s now a plus-11 in these playoffs. He’s also averaging close to 20 minutes a night, and those minutes were extra important when Ekholm was sidelined with an injury.

Walman has helped the Oilers’ blue line greatly by being another puck mover at five-on-five and on the power play. He’s highlighted a key difference in this Edmonton team compared to last year, which is improved depth and overall play on defence. McDavid and Draisaitl are still at the forefront of this squad, but it doesn’t feel like it’s all on their shoulders anymore. Players like Walman are a big reason why.